Bain predicts: Non-store sales will drive 90% of U.S. holiday season growth

According to foreign media reports, on September 18, Bain's annual US retail holiday forecast showed that US retail sales growth was "below average" at 3%, far below the 10-year average of 5.2%. It is estimated that total US retail sales in November and December this year will reach nearly $941 billion.

Bain's forecast of slower holiday sales growth is similar to Deloitte's forecast, which previously predicted that holiday sales could grow 2.3% to 3.3% between November and January. At the same time, Bain expects non-store sales to grow 9.5% year-on-year, accounting for about 90% of holiday season sales growth. In-store sales will remain relatively flat, at 0.5% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since the Great Recession in 2008.

Bain reports that in-store sales growth will vary by category, with general merchandise, apparel accessories, and groceries seeing the strongest sales growth, while department stores, sports and hobbies, furniture, and construction and gardening will see negative single-digit sales growth.

Retailers continue to face challenges that could depress holiday sales this quarter as shoppers spend more on expensive, non-discretionary expenses, such as housing and health care, while credit card debt rises and savings rates fall. Still, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts could boost consumer confidence in the coming months.

Aaron Cheris, partner in Bain's retail business, said this year has been a relatively slow year for the U.S. retail industry, as consumers have been dealing with rising costs and unemployment. Interest rate cuts and strong stock market performance may help boost consumer confidence and achieve moderate sales growth. Retailers still need to start taking positive actions early, emphasizing value and finding ways to attract more consumers to buy during the holiday season.

Bain offers the following advice for retailers on how to excel during the holiday season:

① Emphasize value and attract consumers by launching high-quality products regardless of product price

② Attract consumers through intuitive search tools, personalized marketing, relevant gift lists and timely promotions

③Showcase exclusive products, collections, brands and partnerships

④ Improve the shopping experience through skilled holiday staff and more delivery options (including fast delivery and easy returns)

⑤ Achieve seamless integration of all channels, use offline store capacity to support online orders, and meet more online needs

Author ✎ Rayna/

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