U.S. holiday shopping forecast! Sellers can start planning their advertising plans

This year, the United States will usher in the first real "post-epidemic" holiday season. It is learned that recently, digital marketing agency NetElixir released the first 2022 holiday e-commerce sales forecast calendar. The forecast shows that e-commerce sales in the November-December holiday season will exceed 20% of the national retail sales.

NetElixir's forecast is much more optimistic than other research institutions, and its CEO is very confident about it. He said: "My forecast comes from the summary of recent online sales trends, analysis of key macro expectations that affect the e-commerce landscape, and a hunch about consumer behavior summarized from decades of business."

NetElixir’s forecast reveals the rhythm of e-commerce sales during this year’s US holiday season, which will have a significant impact on online sellers’ advertising plans.

Forecasts show that November 20, November 21, November 24, November 25, November 28, December 4, December 5, December 11, December 12 and December 18-22 will be the days with the highest year-on-year online sales growth during the holiday shopping season, with each day expected to see year-on-year growth of more than 20%.

In the above figure, the green part represents low competition intensity, with an annual growth rate of online sales >7% and less than 15%; the orange part represents medium competition intensity, with an annual growth rate of online sales >15% and less than 20%; the red part represents the highest competition intensity, with an annual growth rate of online sales >25%.

NetElixir also predicts the following key trends:

·Overall holiday online sales will increase by 7% year-on-year, with e-commerce sales likely to increase by 10% in November and 6-8% in December.

Holiday promotions are likely to start earlier this year, and high inventory levels could lead to large-scale pre-holiday sales in September and October.

The growing popularity of BOPIS (pick up in store) will lead to a continued increase in the share of last-minute, pre-Christmas online sales, with high online sales expected between December 18 and 22.

Third-party marketplaces and retail media will account for 58%-60% of total online holiday sales this year.

A post-Christmas “me-buys” week of sales will begin on December 26, with more consumers shopping for themselves.

The BNPL (buy now, pay later) model has been a key driver of online growth and this trend is expected to continue, especially during the holiday season.

Shipping deadlines and product availability will be key constraints this year.

Editor✎ Ashley/

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