Cross-border logistics earthquake! Small package direct mail model encounters "life and death crisis"

USPS suspends delivery

On February 4, USPS officially announced that it would temporarily stop accepting inbound packages (except letters) from China and Hong Kong Post until further notice. However, less than 24 hours after the "suspension order", USPS issued another notice, announcing that it would resume accepting relevant packages from February 5.

The United States Postal Service (USPS) said it will work closely with Customs and Border Protection to implement the new China tariff collection process to ensure package delivery is not affected.

Although the USPS's "suspension order" was short-lived, it sent out three dangerous signals:

The additional 10% tariff covers almost all categories.

The original T86 simplified process is no longer available, and the seller's customs declaration documents, tax certificates and other customs clearance materials must be compliant.

According to a Shenzhen logistics company, the inspection rate at US ports has soared by 300% recently, and the average detention time has been extended by 5-8 days.

This brief delivery turmoil at USPS has undoubtedly deeply exposed the fatal weakness of the small package direct mail model. Relevant sellers in North America should be vigilant.

Cancellation of T86 becomes a "death sentence" for small packages

According to U.S. Customs data, the United States handled more than 1.3 billion "low-value duty-free" packages in 2024. A congressional report even pointed out that Temu and Shein accounted for more than 30% of all packages entering the United States through this policy, and may account for nearly half of all "low-value duty-free" packages from China.

This time, Trump directly launched the "Tariff 2.0" policy, directly breaking through the industry's last line of defense:

The United States announced that it would impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from China starting from February 4, and at the same time canceled the "minimum" T86 tariff exemption policy for small goods worth less than US$800.

Serious impact on merchants exporting to the United States:

Logistics costs and tariff costs will increase sharply.

A leading logistics company estimates that the logistics costs of footwear and clothing will surge by 27.5%, and the 3C category will increase by 33.8%.

Platforms such as Temu and Shein that rely on "small package direct mail" are the first to be affected. A seller in Yiwu who sent 10,000 orders in one day said bluntly: "The profit margin has been compressed to less than 3%."

U.S. customs inspections have become stricter and customs clearance time has been extended, which will seriously affect consumers' shopping experience and further affect sales.

A consumer survey in Los Angeles showed that 82% of users said they could not accept logistics time of more than 15 days + additional taxes and fees.

The disappearance of small tax-free bonuses has directly led to a 20%-30% surge in cross-border logistics costs. Export-dependent companies have to bear the pressure of increased tariffs, which has directly led to a decline in profit margins.

How should companies exporting to the United States respond?

Faced with the US's policy crackdown on foreign trade, cross-border enterprises have launched lightning-fast deployment:

• With sufficient funds, we can start the construction of our own warehouses, focusing on tax-free states such as Texas and New Jersey.

  
  

• Develop a three-level network of "regional warehouse + satellite warehouse" to achieve ultra-fast delivery within 6 hours

  
  

• Choose a third-party overseas warehouse alliance to share warehousing resources in multiple locations as forward warehouses and transit warehouses to improve logistics efficiency and solve the problem of increasing uncertainty in the logistics time of direct mail small packages.

  
  

• You can also deploy on multiple platforms to expand sales channels.

  
  

• Give priority to using the platform's official warehouses (such as Amazon FBA, Temu semi-managed warehouses), and then use overseas warehouses for small-scale risk hedging.

  
  

• Overseas warehouses can store some hot-selling products in advance. When there are problems with direct mail small packages or FBA inventory, they can be shipped from overseas warehouses in a timely manner to ensure the timely supply of goods and avoid order loss due to logistics interruptions.

  
  

A series of recent policy changes in the United States have brought huge challenges to cross-border enterprises, and the small package direct mail model has encountered a "life-or-death crisis". Only enterprises that use overseas warehouses to build a "localization fortress" can fight their way out of the policy encirclement, gain a foothold in the North American market, and achieve sustainable development.