Import volume has dropped significantly, and container congestion and backlogs in the United States have basically disappeared

Congestion at major U.S. container ports has largely disappeared as import levels decline amid economic uncertainty, according to the latest monthly Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

The report found that while import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports are recovering from a near three-year low in February, imports are expected to remain well below last year's levels until the fall.

“Americans are still spending, and retail sales are expected to increase this year, but we won’t see the explosive demand of the past two years,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president of supply chain and customs policy.

Jonathan Gold warned that while port congestion has subsided, other supply chain challenges remain, from a shortage of truck drivers to getting empty containers back to terminals.

On a positive note, negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) are ongoing and a deal may be reached soon.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said: The continued existence of economic uncertainty, including high inflation rates, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, will have a significant impact on import trade.

"Imports have been falling at most ports since late last year, with the fall in Chinese exports highlighting the slowdown in demand for consumer goods. We forecast that the decline in imports will increase further in the first half of this year. Imports will remain below recent levels until inflation and excess inventories decline," he said.

The report showed that U.S. ports handled a total of 1.62 million TEUs in March, up 5% from February but down 30.6% from the same period last year, with import volumes falling to the lowest level since May 2020.

Ports have not yet reported data for April, but Global Port Tracker forecasts 1.73 million TEU for the month, down 23.4% year-over-year. May is expected to be 1.83 million TEU, down 23.5% from 2.4 million TEU last year and the lowest number of import containers in a single month on record.

Global Port Tracking also predicts that the first half of 2023 is expected to be 10.4 million TEUs, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8%; the third quarter of 2023 is expected to be 6 million TEUs, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%; and the first nine months of 2023 is expected to be 16.5 million TEUs, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%.

It is understood that the total U.S. import volume for the full year of 2022 was 25.5 million TEUs, a decrease of 1.2% from the annual record of 25.8 million TEUs set in 2021.

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