2023 North American e-commerce growth forecast, Mexico expected to be the first

Recently, ecommerceDB, a research institute under Statista, released its forecast for the North American e-commerce market in 2023, including the growth rates of the three major e-commerce markets in the United States, Mexico and Canada, as well as the categories. It is predicted that Mexico will become the fastest growing e-commerce market in North America.

Overview of the North American Market

According to Statista data, North America is the second largest e-commerce market in the world, second only to Asia. In 2022, North American e-commerce market revenue will reach $1 trillion, while Asia's will be $1.7 trillion. It is predicted that North American e-commerce growth will be higher than Asia's, and is expected to grow by 15% annually from 2022 to 2026, reaching a market size of $1.8 trillion by 2026, approaching Asia.

Europe is the world's third-largest e-commerce market and is expected to grow the fastest among the top three e-commerce markets, with an estimated annual growth rate of 16% from 2022 to 2026, but its overall scale still lags behind North America.

The North American e-commerce market is diverse, including the United States and Canada, two of the world's most powerful economies, as well as the emerging market of Mexico, which has a large population of nearly 130 million and huge economic potential.

The United States has the largest share of the North American e-commerce market, but Canada and Mexico are leading in terms of growth. Currently, the e-commerce penetration rates in the United States and Canada are 80% and 75% respectively, while the e-commerce penetration rate in Mexico is 49%.

Between 2022 and 2026, U.S. e-commerce is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 15%, while Canada and Mexico are expected to grow at annual rates of 17% and 20%, respectively, during the same time period.

The three markets differ significantly in terms of categories. Fashion is the largest e-commerce category in Canada, accounting for 28% of revenue in 20022, while in Mexico, fashion only accounts for 17% of total e-commerce revenue. Like the United States, the largest e-commerce category in Mexico is food and personal care.

US Market Forecast 2023

The United States is the world's second largest e-commerce market, with revenue expected to grow 18% to $101 million by 2023, ahead of Japan. Between 2023 and 2027, the U.S. e-commerce market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 15%, reaching $1.5 trillion in 2027.

In the United States, food and personal care e-commerce has the highest share, accounting for 27.3% of U.S. e-commerce revenue; followed by toys, hobbies and DIY, accounting for 25.6%; fashion accounts for 20.5%; and furniture and appliances account for 13.4%.

Amazon remains the largest e-commerce platform in the United States, followed by Walmart.com and Apple.com. These three retailers account for 42.6% of the revenue of the top 100 online stores in the United States.

Mexico Market Forecast 2023

Mexico is the 15th largest e-commerce market in the world, with revenue expected to grow 21.5% to $42,157.4 million by 2023, ahead of Spain (16th). Between 2023 and 2027, the CAGR is expected to be 13.7%, and the market size is expected to reach $70,436.4 million by 2027.

In the Mexican e-commerce market, food and personal care e-commerce has the largest share, accounting for 27.1% of Mexico's e-commerce revenue; followed by electronics and media, accounting for 25.4%; furniture and appliances accounted for 18.4%; fashion accounted for 16.2%; toys, hobbies and DIY accounted for the remaining 13.0%.

In Mexico, the top three e-commerce platforms with the highest market share are amazon.com.mx, walmart.com.mx and coppel.com. These three stores account for 37.1% of the revenue of the top 100 online stores in Mexico.

Canadian Market Forecast 2023

Canada is the 9th largest e-commerce market, with revenue expected to grow by 19.1% to $62,117.6 million by 2023, ahead of Indonesia. From 2023 to 2027, revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.0%, and the market size is expected to reach $94,139 million by 2027.

In Canada’s e-commerce market, fashion accounts for the largest share, accounting for 27.1% of the country’s e-commerce revenue; followed by toys, hobbies and DIY, accounting for 23.6%; electronics and media accounted for 19.2%; food and personal care accounted for 17.0%; and furniture and appliances accounted for 13.1%.

In Canada, Amazon.ca, Walmart.ca and Costco.ca are the three largest e-commerce platforms in terms of market share. These three platforms account for 43.2% of the revenue of the top 100 online stores in Canada.

Editor✎ Ashley/

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