Primeday is officially announced! A new round of US dollar market is coming!

Today, Amazon officially announced the event date of Prime Day 2022. This year's Member Day will be held from July 12th to 13th!

The timing is quite strange. Although the month has returned to its normal rhythm before the epidemic and is scheduled for July, this year's Membership Day actually starts on Tuesday. In previous years, it has always started on Monday, which perfectly connects to the shopping time after the weekend. Tuesday itself is indeed not as good as Monday in terms of conversion and traffic inertia.

However, Amazon tried to hold Prime Day in different months last year and the year before, once in October and once in June, both of which were unconventional dates. This year's Tuesday may also be for the same purpose, to try something when traffic is at a bottleneck.

This year's Prime Day is a critical test for both sellers and Amazon itself. The Q1 financial report has revealed Amazon's current predicament. How to turn things around and the real spending power and trends of the US retail market will all be presented in this membership day. The entire US consumer market has undergone dramatic changes since the beginning of this year, including the rapid rise in inflation, which has increased overall prices, and the drastic price fluctuations of bulk products such as oil and grain caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, which are all major events related to the real money in the hands of consumers.

As announced just yesterday, the Federal Reserve’s June interest rate hike has taken place, with the rate hike being as much as 75 percentage points, the largest single rate hike since 1994.

The last rate hike was on May 5. At that time, I also reported to everyone in detail the situation before and after the rate hike. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points. After a brief rise, U.S. stocks plummeted across the board on May 9.

Overnight, Facebook's parent company Meta fell 6.8%, Netflix fell 7.7%, Apple fell 5.57%, Tesla fell more than 8.33%, and even Amazon fell 7.56%. The three major U.S. stock indexes have successively recorded the largest single-day declines since 2020, second only to the five consecutive circuit breakers during the epidemic in 2020!

At the same time, the US dollar appreciated strongly, breaking through the exchange rate that had been hovering around 6.4 for a long time after the epidemic, soaring all the way to 6.7 and stabilizing, and even breaking through 6.8 in a short period of time.

Now that the Federal Reserve has announced a 75 basis point rate hike, the familiar story is here again. The U.S. stock market is still up slightly today, and the U.S. dollar has not changed dramatically. Let's wait and see what happens in a few days. There is no doubt that the window for a sharp rise in the U.S. dollar exchange rate is coming again!

I don't think it's certain whether the increase will be so exaggerated as to break 7. The last rate hike was not that strong. Many institutions estimated it to be 75 basis points before it was implemented. However, the last rate hike was more of a signal, representing the Fed's attitude of no longer backing up the stock market. Confidence is more precious than gold in the stock market. The Fed's change destroyed the confidence in the stock market, so the plunge and surge were astonishing. So although the rate hike this time is stronger, it just continues the Fed's attitude. US stocks will definitely fall, but the magnitude will not be as exaggerated as last time.

The same is true for the US dollar. The increase this time is unlikely to be as exaggerated as the last time, and it is still difficult to break 7. However, the Fed will only increase its efforts to raise interest rates. In order to stop inflation in the United States, it can only raise interest rates. Give it some time, and it will not be a problem for the US dollar to return to the 7 era.